雷暴天气下机场离场航班运行韧性评估模型
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作者:
作者单位:

1.中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津 300300;2.民航飞联网重点实验室,天津 300300

作者简介:

通讯作者:

王兴隆,男,教授,E-mail:xinglong1979@163.com。

中图分类号:

U8;V355.2

基金项目:

国家自然基金重点项目(U2133207); 国家自然科学基金面上项目(62173332,52272356); 天津多元基金(21JCYBJCO0700);中国民航大学研究生科研创新项目(2024YJSKC03004,2024YJSKC03003)。


A Resilience Assessment Model of Airport Departure Flight Operations Under Thunderstorm Conditions
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China;2.Key Laboratory of Internet of Aircraft, Tianjin 300300, China

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    摘要:

    构建地空融合的机场雷暴影响强度量化评价方法,研究雷暴影响下机场航班运行韧性的表征方法及演变特征,可以为机场应对不同雷暴天气过程提供理论参考,提高机场运行的安全和效率。首先,本文提出一种结合地面雷暴强度(基于欧盟天气算法ATMAP)和空中雷暴强度(基于对流天气空域阻塞概率模型)的雷暴影响强度指数,其中ATMAP算法主要依赖METAR报文数据,对流天气空域阻塞概率模型以气象雷达资料为基础;其次,以航班出发率作为关键指标,建立适应雷暴特点的韧性评估模型;最后使用层次聚类算法将雷暴天气进行分类,解析不同类型雷暴的韧性演变特征。以2018—2021年间西安机场的雷暴天气过程为研究对象,结果表明:雷暴影响强度指数达到0.09时,开始影响机场航班运行性能;韧性评估模型能够准确反映机场韧性过程;使用层次聚类法将雷暴天气过程分为了两类,其非负综合韧性指标分别为13.037和71.808;机场在高强度、高波动和快增长的雷暴冲击下,非负综合韧性指标越小。

    Abstract:

    Constructing a ground-air integrated quantitative evaluation method for airport thunderstorm impact intensity, and studying the characterization method and evolution characteristics of airport flight operation resilience under the influence of thunderstorms can provide theoretical references for airports to cope with different thunderstorm weather processes, and improve the safety and efficiency of airport operations. Firstly, a thunderstorm impact intensity index combining ground thunderstorm intensity (based on the EU weather algorithm ATMAP) and airborne thunderstorm intensity (based on the convective weather airspace obstruction probability model) is proposed, in which the ATMAP algorithm mainly relies on the METAR message data, and the convective weather airspace obstruction probability model is based on the meteorological radar data. Secondly, the flight departure rate is taken as a key metric to establish a resilience evaluation model that adapts to the characteristics of thunderstorms. Finally, the hierarchical clustering algorithm is used to categorize the thunderstorm weather and analyze the toughness evolution characteristics of different types of thunderstorms. Taking the thunderstorm weather process of Xi’an airport during 2018—2021 as the research object, the results show that: When the thunderstorm impact intensity index reaches 0.09, it starts to affect the flight operation performance of the airport; the toughness assessment model can accurately reflect the toughness process of the airport; using the hierarchical clustering algorithm to categorize the thunderstorm weather process into two categories with non negative general resilience index of 13.037 and 71.808, respectively; and under the impact of high-intensity, high-volatility, and fast-growing thunderstorms, airports with lower non-negative comprehensive resilience indices are more resilient.

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李克南,张晓夕,王兴隆.雷暴天气下机场离场航班运行韧性评估模型[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2025,57(6):1166-1176

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-09-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-18
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