航空公司欧美国际航线运营持续时间生存分析
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京 211106

通讯作者:

唐小卫,男,讲师,E-mail:tangxiaowei@nuaa.edu.cn。

中图分类号:

F561;U8

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(41701120);2023年民航安全能力建设项目(IMH23007)。


Survival Analysis on Operating Duration of Airline Routes in EU-US International Market
Author:
Affiliation:

College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China

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    摘要:

    航空公司航线进入后的运营可持续性直接影响其盈利水平。基于生存分析方法探究影响航线运营持续时间的因素,从成本和供给特征、航线和机场特征、市场结构特征、航司合作类型和时间异质性5个方面选取关键因素,以自由化程度较高的欧美跨大西洋市场为实证对象,研究年份为2003—2021共19年,采用Kaplan-Meier方法进行单因素分析,并构建威布尔参数生存模型分析影响因素与航线运营持续时间的定量关系。结果表明:(1)航司在欧美航线的平均运营持续时间为5年,持续运营超过10年的航线占比为16%;(2)距离、航司投入总运力、航线结构、端点机场类型和竞争程度、航司类型及所属区域和联盟对航司航线运营持续时间具有显著影响;(3)联盟和代码共享独立变量和交互变量均对航线生存产生显著影响,星空和天合联盟成员的航线运营持续时间更长,联盟成员在代码共享合作时承担不同承运人角色对航线退出风险影响存在显著差异。

    Abstract:

    The post-entry operation sustainability of airline routes directly affects their profitability. This paper investigates factors influencing the operating duration of airline routes based on a survival analysis modeling method. Key factors are selected from five aspects representing characteristics in terms of cost and supply, route and airport, market structure, airline cooperation type, and time heterogeneity. The transatlantic market between Europe and the US is chosen as the empirical study due to its high degree of liberalization. The research period ranges 19 years from 2003 to 2021. First, the single factor analysis is conducted by utilizing the Kaplan-Meier method. Second, a Weibull parameter survival model is constructed to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the chosen factors and the operating duration of airline routes. The results show that: (1) The average operating duration of the EU-US routes is five years, among which routes that were continuously operated for more than 10 years account for 16%; (2) the operating duration of airline routes is significantly influenced by distance, airline’s total capacity, route structure, endpoint airports type, route competition, airline type, and region as well as alliance; (3) both independent and interaction variables representing alliance and code-share characteristics have significant impacts on route operating duration. Routes operated by Star and SkyTeam members have a longer operating duration. For airlines in the same alliance, the route-exit risks between operating carriers and marketing carriers in code-sharing cooperation are significantly different.

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马昕瑶,唐小卫,王立文,张生润.航空公司欧美国际航线运营持续时间生存分析[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2023,55(2):320-328

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  • 收稿日期:2022-08-14
  • 最后修改日期:2022-11-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-05
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