In the O2O marketing, coupon is an effective marketing tool. However, when we are not clear whether customers are willing to consume, coupons will be in spamming. In order to improve the utilization rate of coupons, in this paper, firstly the three-way decision-making thought is introduced to forecast the coupons utilization. And combine with the integrated algorithm XGBoost in machine learning, the model for the coupon usage is established. Second, in the process of three-way decision-making, taking into account misclassification cost and learning cost, the classification process should be more close to the actual classification. Finally, the real consumption data of users’ coupon provided in Tianchi platform by Alibaba is experimentally analyzed. The results show that the XGBoost-based three-classification algorithm could effectively improve the accuracy of classification, so that merchants could not only maintain the regular customers, but also identify potential new customers, thereby reducing their marketing cost.