Abstract:The problem of flight resource (crew and aircraft) distribution may exist in flight scheduling and operating. However, when the distribution occurred in a delayed flight, it may propagate the delay to its downstream flight through the sharing crew or aircraft, and consequently to the whole flight bunches. A flight bunch with flight resource distribution is considered based on Bayesian analysis in this paper, and the survival analysis of flight delay is discussed by the Cox regression model. By comparing different influencing factors and delay time under different distribution time, it can be concluded that the distribution time affects the performance of delay propagation, and the method proposed in the paper provides a quantitative way in distribution time determining.