A dynamic model for ballistic reentry spacecraft is established, and a dynamic model of upper wind on spacecraft is presented by studying the significant effect of upper wind on landing point of spacecraft, given the fact that a deceleration parachute is opened before landing．Further, a landing point prediction algorithm based on upper wind real-time compensation is proposed. Compared with previous algorithms, the proposed algorithm does not need to calculate the interpolation table of upper wind compensation. The verification with actual data indicates that the proposed algorithm significantly improves the prediction accuracy of spacecraft landing point.