A dynamic model and the performance analysis method of hose-drogue aerial refueling system are proposed based on Kane equation. In the method, the hose is modeled by the finite segment of rigid bar connected with hinge, and the drogue is regarded as a mass point at the end of the hose. Then both system generalized coordinates and generalized rates are defined, and a set of multi-level recursive formulas of hose-bar position and dynamic equations are derived. Furthermore, external aerodynamic loads that account for the effects of tanker wake, steady wind and atmospheric turbulence of each hose-bar are estimated. Numerical simulations show good correctness and stability of the dynamic model by steady-state resistance and equilibrium position of hose-drogue under different flight conditions in steady wind. Finally, the displacements of the drogue and the motion of various hose-bar resulting from atmospheric turbulence are investigated.