可靠性及可靠性灵敏度分析的改进点估计方法
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Improved Point Estimation Method for Analyzing Reliability and Reliability Se nsitivity
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    摘要:

    针对低维高度非线性问题,提出了一种可靠 性及可靠性灵敏度分析的改进的点估计方法。基本思想是首先由空间分割来降低局部子空间 中功能函数的非线性程度,然后用低精度的稀疏网格积分探索子空间中功能函数的概率响应 特性,最后组合子空间中的信息来得到所需的可靠性及其灵敏度分析结果。方法的优点 是适用于低维高度非线性功能函数的失效概率和可靠性灵敏度分析,由于无需求解功能函数 的梯度函数,因此适用于复杂的隐式功能函数。另外,由于方法利用少量均匀抽样来估计对 失效概率贡献最大的点,并依据其进行子空间的划分,从而使得子空间的划分更有利于提高 可靠性及可靠性灵敏度分析的效率。用算例对所提方法进行了验证,结果表明:在低维高度 非线性条件下,所提算法的精度和效率比类似的三点估计、直接稀疏网格积分方法有明显优 势。

    Abstract:

    For low-dimensional and high-nonlinear performance function, an improved point estimation method is proposed for analyzing reliability and reliability sensitivity. In the proposed method, input space is firstly separated into some subspaces to reduce the nonlinearity of performance function in these subspaces. Secondly, low-level sparse grid integration method is used to estimate probabilistic response character in the subspaces. Finally, the probabilistic response characters in every subspace are combined to obtain the reliability and reliability sensitivity. The obvious advantage of the proposed method is its applicability for the reliability and reliability sensitivity of low-dimensional and high-nonlinear model, and it is also adaptive to complex implicit function because it is gradient free. Moreover, input space is partitioned according to the most probable point estimated by uniformly sampling few samples, which helps to improve the estimation efficiency of the reliability and reliability sensitivity. Several test examples demonstrate that for low-dimensional and high-nonlinear model the proposed method is more precise and efficient than existing point estimation methods, i.e., the threepoint estimation and the direct sparse grid integral method.

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张永利,吕震宙,李生兰.可靠性及可靠性灵敏度分析的改进点估计方法[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2016,48(5):705-713

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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-11-18
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